Hi
I was just trying to work out the probability of flopping a set on the flop in texas holdem but don't know if its exactly. I'm assuming only a set and not four of a kind.
My workings:
P(Flopping a Set)=[(2/50)*(48/49)*(47/48)]+[(48/50)*(2/49)*(47/48)]+[(48/50)*(47/49)*(2/48)]
= 0.11510204 or about odds of 8.688:1
Does that seem correct?
A set is 3 of the same card (different suits)
In texas hold'em each player is dealt 2 cards and then 5 community cards (first 3 (called flop) then 1 (called turn) then 1 (called river)). The best 5 card hand (each player makes a 5 card hand from 7 available cards) wins.
First, I assume no one else is playing.
You have a pair, the odds that the third card isn't in the first four flips is:
(that number is according to excel)
Then the odds of a match in the last flip is:
So you multiply that together to get:
So it's very low.
But what if you're playing with amount of people (including yourself, also this assumes they don't have your needed card). Then the equation would be: