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Math Help - Poker odds (help please)

  1. #1
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    Poker odds (help please)

    Hi all

    I play online poker and would like to know how to work out the probability of consecative hands. ie: This is what happend to me in the last week, seems almost impossible but it happened, I really want to know what are the odds of something like this happening.

    On three different occasions my cards were AA and my opponent had AK. Now the pokers odds for me winning the hand is 91.95% and my opponents chance of winning is 6.8%, the remaining percentage is if we tie.

    Now I have had that hand (AA vs AK) on three different occasions and lost all three. How can I work out the probability of losing that hand three times in a row. I am very curious, seems highly unlikely that it could happen, but it did.

    Thank you in advance
    Donskey
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  2. #2
    MHF Contributor
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    Hi

    The 3 rounds being independent the probability to lose all of them is

    \left(\frac{6.8}{100}\right)^3 = 0.0003 = 0.03 %

    which is very unlikely
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  3. #3
    MHF Contributor
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    I also want to add that you only have that chance of winning assuming both of you were all-in preflop. If you raised pre-flop, he called and the flop came 10JQ and then you got it all-in you were behind and this wouldn't be considered having your aces "cracked".

    The worst "bad-beat" I have taken lately was when I held J9 on a JJ3 flop and got it all in against someone with K3. The turn was a 3 - no worries. The river was... the last 3. Runner-runner quads. Cruel game.
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  4. #4
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    Thank Heaps

    Thanks for the reply running-gag. It hurts even more knowing how unlikely it is. So am I correct in dividing 0.03 into 100, therefore there is a 1 in 3333 chance of this event happening?

    In anwer to your question Jameson, yes in the three hands we were all in preflop. As you stated, the odds change once the flop is out, but that was not the case, we were all in preflop on all three occasions.

    And sorry for such a bad beat, but you're not alone, I have had plently also.

    If you're interested, this is how the AA vs AK hands went.

    The first one was KKx x x
    The second xxK K x
    The third xJ10 Q x

    What makes it worse, they all happened at very crucial times deep in a tourney.

    After the third time, I learnt something new about my laptop, it can fly, seriously it went flying across the room.

    cheers
    Donskey
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