i have a probabilty question to solve but i am not sure if i have interpreted the text in the correct way.
- the prob. of a mother murdering her own infant is 1/100.000 pa.
- the prob. of an infant dieing of sids is 1/8500 pa.
- in such situations, 1 in 20 cases of bruising are by attempted or actual murder. 1 in 100 caes of bruising are due to efforts of resusicatete.
- the prob. of finding signs of fatal disease give sids is 1 in 20. otherwise the prob. of finding signs of fatal disease give murder is 1 in 1000.
I have the following:
P(murder) = 1/100000
P(dieing of sids) = 1/8500
P(bruising|murder) = 1/20
P(bruising|deceased) = 1/100
P(disease|sids) = 1/20
P(disease|murder) = 1/1000
Have I interpreted this in a right way?
In order to solve (murder and sids are independent events):
whats the prob. of:
a: child 1 was murdered? (Answer: 1/100000?)
b: child 2's death was due to sids? (Answer: 1/8500?)
c: both child 1 and child 2 where murdered? (Answer: 1/100000 * 1/100000?)
d: one child was murdered and the other died due to sids? (Answer: 1/100000 + 1/8500 - (1/100000 * 1/100000))?
Is that correct?
thanks in advance