Imagine an event has a probability of 0.04 to happen. Like for example a gun with a loader with a capacity of 100 bullets but which has only 4 bullets in it. And we push on the thing of the gun to fire a bullet. Say I have 2 identical guns like I just described and I push on the first and then on the second. What is the probability that a bullet was fired? My intuition says a probability close to 0.08 but still less than it and of course greater than 0.04.
I don't know how I can calculate it. Thanks a lot.