Imagine an event has a probability of 0.04 to happen. Like for example a gun with a loader with a capacity of 100 bullets but which has only 4 bullets in it. And we push on the thing of the gun to fire a bullet. Say I have 2 identical guns like I just described and I push on the first and then on the second. What is the probability that a bullet was fired? My intuition says a probability close to 0.08 but still less than it and of course greater than 0.04.
I don't know how I can calculate it. Thanks a lot.
A and B are independent, does that mean that ? This is what I recall from what I've learned.
So ... It seems so strange to me. Does that mean that if I fire exactly 25 guns like I described, then the probability of a bullet to be fired is 1? I don't believe this to be true... I mistaken somewhere.
A and B are independent means . What you are talking about is disjoint event, also called as mutually exclusive events. They are totally different things.
Here and
If you substitute the above values, you will get the probability of at least 1 bullet being fired.
For exactly 1 bullet, compute , where stands for A complement.
Thank you all!
Yes, in fact I asked the question also to solve this! My intuition was thinking it'd be 0.5 and I realized it is close to 0.64... Interesting!