In the World Series (baseball), the first team to win 4 games wins the series. History shows there have been 42 occasions when a team had a lead of 3 games to 1. In this situation, the team with the lead went on to win the series 36 times. What is your best estimate of the probability that the team in the lead wins any particular game (assume the outcomes of all games are independent and that the win probabilties don’t change).
I'm finding difficulty approaching this problem. any help will be appreciated.