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Math Help - Decision Tree

  1. #1
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    Decision Tree

    If you attend all class sessions, your probability of passing the course is .8; but if you only attend randomly, your probability of passing the course is .5. If you fail, you may take a makeup exam where the probabilities of passing are .6 if you attended in full and .1 if you attend at random. If passing the course is worth 5 credits, but, in terms of energy, attending full time “costs” 3 credits and attending randomly “costs” 1 credit, which attendance pattern should you adopt
    Note: Assume that all failing students will take the makeup exam. The utility of failing is zero.[/FONT]
    ]Draw a Decision Tree[/FONT][/LIST]
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  2. #2
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    -Full attendance
    --pass
    --fail
    ---pass makeup
    ---fail makeup
    -random attendance
    --pass
    --fail
    ---pass makeup
    ---fail makeup

    /////////////////////////////////////
    //////////////OR////////////////////
    /////////////////////////////////////
    -pass
    --Full attendance
    --random attendance
    -fail
    --pass makeup
    ---Full attendance
    ---random attendance
    --fail makeup
    ---Full attendance
    ---random attendance
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  3. #3
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    I would opp for the first tree as this more accurately models a real decision process

    -Full attendance
    --pass .8*(5-3)
    --fail
    ---pass makeup (1-.8)*.6*(5-3)
    ---fail makeup (1-.8)*(1-.6)*(0-3)
    -random attendance
    --pass .5*(5-1)
    --fail
    ---pass makeup (1-.5)*.1*(5-1)
    ---fail makeup(1-.5)*(1-.1)*(0-1)
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  4. #4
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    thank you so much
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