Thread: Decision Tree

If you attend all class sessions, your probability of passing the course is .8; but if you only attend randomly, your probability of passing the course is .5. If you fail, you may take a makeup exam where the probabilities of passing are .6 if you attended in full and .1 if you attend at random. If passing the course is worth 5 credits, but, in terms of energy, attending full time “costs” 3 credits and attending randomly “costs” 1 credit, which attendance pattern should you adopt
Note: Assume that all failing students will take the makeup exam. The utility of failing is zero.[/FONT]
]Draw a Decision Tree[/FONT][/LIST]

-Full attendance
--pass
--fail
---pass makeup
---fail makeup
-random attendance
--pass
--fail
---pass makeup
---fail makeup

/////////////////////////////////////
//////////////OR////////////////////
/////////////////////////////////////
-pass
--Full attendance
--random attendance
-fail
--pass makeup
---Full attendance
---random attendance
--fail makeup
---Full attendance
---random attendance

I would opp for the first tree as this more accurately models a real decision process

-Full attendance
--pass .8*(5-3)
--fail
---pass makeup (1-.8)*.6*(5-3)
---fail makeup (1-.8)*(1-.6)*(0-3)
-random attendance
--pass .5*(5-1)
--fail
---pass makeup (1-.5)*.1*(5-1)
---fail makeup(1-.5)*(1-.1)*(0-1)

thank you so much