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Math Help - Online Poker

  1. #1
    Jonny Cool
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    Online Poker

    Hi everyone I was just playing some online poker and I got the best hand of my life. It was a Straight Flush Q,J,10,9,8 all hearts

    I was plaing Texsas hold em and I had held the 10 and the Q of hearts and in the community cards were the rest of them.

    My question is what are the chances of being dealt a hand like that?

    How lucky was I?

    J.Cool
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  2. #2
    Newbie
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    My approximation

    There are 5 cards that are a Q,J,10,9, or 8 times four suits (20 cards).
    So lets assume you want a queen down flush.

    So to get drawn one of these cards from a single deck is:
    20/52, or almost a half.
    After you have the first card, that decides what suit you are going after.
    So then there are 4 cards you need from a stack of 51
    4/51
    Then there are 3 cards you need
    3/50
    Then 2
    2/49
    then 1
    1/48
    All up your chances of this occurring is 1 in 649,740.

    However, assuming you would be happy with a King down flush as well makes it more likely to occur.
    The fact that you can throw cards away and get more also makes it more likely.
    I won't do the calculations, but the odds are probably between 1 in 10,000 and 1 in 100,000 at a wild guess.

    If you've played 10,000 hands, it was time you were due!
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  3. #3
    Senior Member euclid2's Avatar
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    This is of course very uncommon. once i got two straight flushes in one day. It was ridiculous. was this by any chance on full tilt poker.net?
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  4. #4
    Grand Panjandrum
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    Quote Originally Posted by euclid2 View Post
    This is of course very uncommon. once i got two straight flushes in one day. It was ridiculous. was this by any chance on full tilt poker.net?
    You are wasting your time asking a question on a thread three years old, the original poster is very unlikely to read it unless he is a regular. (And his profile indicates that he has not been on MHF in over three years)

    RonL
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  5. #5
    Grand Panjandrum
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    Quote Originally Posted by euclid2 View Post
    This is of course very uncommon. once i got two straight flushes in one day. It was ridiculous. was this by any chance on full tilt poker.net?
    It should be noted that any particular hand is very unlikely, and it is only the high ranking of straight flushes that singles them and similar hands out for attention.

    RonL
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  6. #6
    MHF Contributor
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    Just noticed this thread.

    I wanted to add on top of CB's statement on how every unique hand is equally difficult to achieve, is that online poker allows for significantly more hands per hour. The dealing of physical cards and the logistics of betting with chips really slow down live poker. Most online players play more than one table at a time, even more increasing the hands per hour. I believe getting in 1k hands an hour is very common for serious players.

    My point is though that because of the high volume of hands, more "strange" things happen like getting two straight flushes in a day. This isn't common of course, but so much more likely to occur online over the course of 3,000 hands in a session versus 100 in the same amount of time played live.
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