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Thread: odds of getting two numbers in the correct order

  1. #1
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    odds of getting two numbers in the correct order

    Can you please tell me the odds of getting two sets of numbers in the correct order... And type out that formula...

    Scenario

    The Church's hymnal has 341 Hymns and am thinking of two them in exact order, e.g., hymn 89 How Great Thou Art and 2 The Spirit of God. Tell me which two I am thinking about and get the order correct.

    Your answer and stat formula will be included in my sacrament talk at church tomorrow (Sunday) and it will be featured in my first video I'll upload to my new YouTube Channel called LatterDaySaintTrucker.

    Thank you for your help!

    Roger Beutel

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  2. #2
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    Re: odds of getting two numbers in the correct order

    Quote Originally Posted by LatterDaySaintTrucker View Post
    Can you please tell me the odds of getting two sets of numbers in the correct order... And type out that formula...

    Scenario

    The Church's hymnal has 341 Hymns and am thinking of two them in exact order, e.g., hymn 89 How Great Thou Art and 2 The Spirit of God. Tell me which two I am thinking about and get the order correct.

    Your answer and stat formula will be included in my sacrament talk at church tomorrow (Sunday) and it will be featured in my first video I'll upload to my new YouTube Channel called LatterDaySaintTrucker.

    Thank you for your help!

    Roger Beutel

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
    Not sure I understand the question. The word "sets' is confusing.

    "What's the chance of guessing two hymns and getting them in the right numerical order?" is a slightly different question.

    1/341 * 1/340 = Probability of getting the two hymns right. (Assuming NO additional information - not even that you are less likely to pick sacrament hymns for opening and closing)

    1/2 = Probability if getting them in the right order.

    Multiply and you're done.

    P.S. Of course, it will change when the new hymn book comes out.
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  3. #3
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    Re: odds of getting two numbers in the correct order

    The probability of selecting the two hymns in the correct order is 1/341 x 1/340 (do not multiply the result by 1/2). Here's why: the probability of guessing the first hymn correctly is 1/341. If that guess is correct, then the probability of selecting the second hymn out of the remaining 340 is 1/340. Hence the probability of guessing both the first and second hymn in order is 1/341 x 1/340. Note that this assumes that you may not choose the same hymn to be sung twice.
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  4. #4
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    Re: odds of getting two numbers in the correct order

    Quote Originally Posted by TKHunny View Post
    Not sure I understand the question. The word "sets' is confusing.

    "What's the chance of guessing two hymns and getting them in the right numerical order?" is a slightly different question.

    1/341 * 1/340 = Probability of getting the two hymns right. (Assuming NO additional information - not even that you are less likely to pick sacrament hymns for opening and closing)

    1/2 = Probability if getting them in the right order.

    Multiply and you're done.

    P.S. Of course, it will change when the new hymn book comes out.
    Perfect, thank you. Yeah, "sets" is not correct verbiage. Thank you!

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  5. #5
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    Re: odds of getting two numbers in the correct order

    Quote Originally Posted by ChipB View Post
    The probability of selecting the two hymns in the correct order is 1/341 x 1/340 (do not multiply the result by 1/2). Here's why: the probability of guessing the first hymn correctly is 1/341. If that guess is correct, then the probability of selecting the second hymn out of the remaining 340 is 1/340. Hence the probability of guessing both the first and second hymn in order is 1/341 x 1/340. Note that this assumes that you may not choose the same hymn to be sung twice.
    Thank you.

    So the answer is 1 in 115940 chance.

    Cheers,

    Roger Beutel


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  6. #6
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    Re: odds of getting two numbers in the correct order

    Quote Originally Posted by ChipB View Post
    The probability of selecting the two hymns in the correct order is 1/341 x 1/340 (do not multiply the result by 1/2). Here's why: the probability of guessing the first hymn correctly is 1/341. If that guess is correct, then the probability of selecting the second hymn out of the remaining 340 is 1/340. Hence the probability of guessing both the first and second hymn in order is 1/341 x 1/340. Note that this assumes that you may not choose the same hymn to be sung twice.
    Yop. I was being generous.
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