Originally Posted by

**random512** @romsek - I'm only a beginner at statistics. Maybe there's some type of statistics concept that we're not accounting for here?

I was under the impression that the total probability for independent events was calculated differently than the total probability for dependent events, and the total probability for dependent events would be lower. Maybe it will help if I simplify my example?:

Scenario 1: 3 independent events, each event has a probability of 80%: .80 * .80 * .80 = 51.2%

Scenario 2: 3 events with sequential dependency, each distinct event has a probability of 80%: ???

Maybe part of the problem here, is that when I say each event has a probability of 80%, that implies that the dependency relationship has no impact, compared to scenario 1. I was assuming that the total probability formula for dependent events would have a built-in function to lower the total probability.

Does my simplified example change anything? Or do you still assert that the total probability for these scenarios should be identical?