Hello, I had a question about how to calculate dependent probability. Calculating independent probability is easy, simply multiply the probability of each event: P1 * P2 * P3.
Therefore, if 3 different resources are working on 3 independent and unrelated tasks, and each resource has an 80% probability of completing his task, then the total probability of all resources completing all tasks, successfully, would be .80 * .80 * .80 = 51.2%
However, I need to figure out the probability formula, for a more advanced scenario. Consider a scenario, where 1 resource is working on 3 tasks in sequence, and the probability of the resource completing each individual task is 80%.
In this scenario, the first task would be independent, but the 2nd task would be dependent on completion of the 1st task, and the 3rd task would be dependent on completion of the 1st and 2nd task. So can you tell me the formula I would use to calculate total probability in this scenario?