Very advanced for me! I'm a complete math noob. I'm willing to pay for help.

Since I don't know the terminology I am just going to make it into a story problem. :/

I am willing to pay $5 by paypal if I can get it answered in the next hour.

Let's say I have a 10% (This number could vary between 0 and 80) chance when digging a hole that I will find treasure. Each time I dig a hole and do not find treasure I have a +5% higher chance of finding treasure on the next dig, and this compounds until treasure is found. An example:

10% chance: Hole dug no treasure found.

15% chance: Hole dug no treasure found.

20% chance: Hole dug no treasure found.

25% chance: Hole dug, treasure found!

10% chance: Hole dug... ect. ect.

The chance of finding trasure can not go above 80%, even with the 5% bonus.

What forumla could I use to figure out my overall average chance of finding treasure depending on my starting treasure finding percentage? Obviously when starting at 80% my overall average will be 80% because the chance can not go above that, but what about for 0-79%?

If anyone figures this out they are so amazing!

Thanks for looking at it even!

Re: Very advanced for me! I'm a complete math noob. I'm willing to pay for help.

Hey eric1982.

This sounds like a Markov model where you can use a Markov chain to model the process. Are you aware of Markov Chains?

Markov chain - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia