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Math Help - Please help me figure this out

  1. #1
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    Please help me figure this out

    I was wondering if this makes sense:

    If 45/1000 people commit violent crimes each year... could I multiply that by the average life expectancy and get the chance of each person committing a violent crime in their life time? If not, is there anyway to get that figure from the 45/1000 number?

    Thanks for your help!~
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  2. #2
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    Re: Please help me figure this out

    HeyBigManOnCampus.

    Are the probabilities independent for each year? (Hint: Consider P(Commit Year 1 OR Commit Year 2 OR .... OR Commit Year N)).
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  3. #3
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    Re: Please help me figure this out

    Hello, BMOC!

    I was wondering if this makes sense:

    If 45/1000 people commit violent crimes each year, could I multiply that by the average life expectancy
    and get the chance of each person committing a violent crime in their life time?
    If not, is there anyway to get that figure from the 45/1000 number?

    No, your method does not make sense.

    You say 4.5% of the people commit a violent crime each year.
    Then someone who is 23 years old has a probability of:
    . . 23 \times 4.5\% \,=\,103.5\% of committing a violent crime at some time.


    The set up is not realistic.

    Say, 1000 people (including you) draw numbers from a hat
    . . and a certain 45 of them must commit a violent crime.

    The probability that you do not commit a crime that year is 95.5%.

    Suppose you enter this "lottery" every year.
    How likely are you commit a crime?

    The probability that you do not commit a crime for 35 years
    . . is:. (0.955)^{30} \:=\:0.199580454 \:\approx\:20\%

    Therefore, the probability that you do commit a violent crime
    . . at least once during your first 35 years is 80\%.

    Ha!
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