HeyBigManOnCampus.
Are the probabilities independent for each year? (Hint: Consider P(Commit Year 1 OR Commit Year 2 OR .... OR Commit Year N)).
I was wondering if this makes sense:
If 45/1000 people commit violent crimes each year... could I multiply that by the average life expectancy and get the chance of each person committing a violent crime in their life time? If not, is there anyway to get that figure from the 45/1000 number?
Thanks for your help!~
Hello, BMOC!
I was wondering if this makes sense:
If 45/1000 people commit violent crimes each year, could I multiply that by the average life expectancy
and get the chance of each person committing a violent crime in their life time?
If not, is there anyway to get that figure from the 45/1000 number?
No, your method does not make sense.
You say 4.5% of the people commit a violent crime each year.
Then someone who is 23 years old has a probability of:
. . of committing a violent crime at some time.
The set up is not realistic.
Say, 1000 people (including you) draw numbers from a hat
. . and a certain 45 of them must commit a violent crime.
The probability that you do not commit a crime that year is 95.5%.
Suppose you enter this "lottery" every year.
How likely are you commit a crime?
The probability that you do not commit a crime for 35 years
. . is:.
Therefore, the probability that you do commit a violent crime
. . at least once during your first 35 years is
Ha!