I'm having a slight problem on a project I'm working on and hopefully this is the right section to post it in.
This is the problem:
I want to calculate the probability of a team winning a game.
Team A vs Team B:
1) Team A has a 15.625% of winning, 37.5% of drawing and 46.875% of losing. I drew these conclusions from all the games they have played this season up until now.
2) Team A has a 19.65% if winning, 53.55% of drawing and 26.8% of losing. I drew these conclusions from the home and away games the teams have been playing and their wins/losses (homecourt advantage).
Up until now, all is fine. The problem arises when I try to assign a different importance to each percentage.
I assign 70% importance to the games played up until now; and 30% to the statistics about the homecourt advantage.
In the end I would like to end up with a percentage for a win, draw and loss from all the figures above.
If someone could be kind enough to explain to me how to do this so I could do this with different values and even more variables (weather, winning/losing streaks, etc.).
I'm sorry if this is very basic, and to be honest I even feel like I know how to do this but for some reason I can't wrap my head around it.