Covariance of BLP error and CEF error
Hi all,
I've been struggling a bit with the following problem:
The random variables X and Y are jointly distributed. Let
and
, where
is the CEF and
is the BLP. Determine whether the following is true or false:
.
My working out is as follows:
We are given that ![Var(\epsilon) = E[Var(\epsilon|X)] = E(\sigma^2_{Y|X})](http://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?Var(\epsilon) = E[Var(\epsilon|X)] = E(\sigma^2_{Y|X}))
![= E[[Y - E(Y|X)][Y - (\alpha + \beta X)]]](http://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?= E[[Y - E(Y|X)][Y - (\alpha + \beta X)]] )
![= E[Y^2 - YE(Y|X) - YL(Y|X) + E(Y|X)L(Y|X)]](http://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?= E[Y^2 - YE(Y|X) - YL(Y|X) + E(Y|X)L(Y|X)] )
![= E(Y^2) - E[E(Y|X)] - E[Y(\alpha + \beta X)] + E[E(Y|X)(\alpha + \beta X)]](http://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?= E(Y^2) - E[E(Y|X)] - E[Y(\alpha + \beta X)] + E[E(Y|X)(\alpha + \beta X)] )
![= E(Y^2) - E(Y^2) - [\alpha E(Y) + \beta E(YX)] + E[\alpha E(Y|X) + \beta XE(Y|X)]](http://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?= E(Y^2) - E(Y^2) - [\alpha E(Y) + \beta E(YX)] + E[\alpha E(Y|X) + \beta XE(Y|X)] )
![= - [\alpha E(Y) + \beta E(YX)] + [\alpha E[E(Y|X)] + \beta E[XE(Y|X)]]](http://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?= - [\alpha E(Y) + \beta E(YX)] + [\alpha E[E(Y|X)] + \beta E[XE(Y|X)]] )
![= - [\alpha E(Y) + \beta E(YX)] + [\alpha E[Y] + \beta E[XY]] = 0](http://latex.codecogs.com/png.latex?= - [\alpha E(Y) + \beta E(YX)] + [\alpha E[Y] + \beta E[XY]] = 0)
Hence,
, assuming
.
Is that okay? The zero covariance between espilon & U seems like a strange result to me, but there are no clues in my textbook.
Thanks!
Re: Covariance of BLP error and CEF error
Would it help if I explained the question a little more?
The CEF is the conditional expectation function, i.e., the expectation of the conditional distribution of Y given X, and the BLP is the best linear prediction of the CEF, i.e., the function that minimizes
, where
.
In my workings, I've taken advantage of the law of iterated expectations (i.e., the marginal expectation of Y is the expectation of its conditional expectation), and the iterated product law (i.e., the expected product of X and Y is equal to the expected product of and the conditional expectation of Y given X).
I suppose the thing that is confusing me, is that the parameters of the BLP (alpha and beta) are functions of random variables, so are random variables (right?), so should I really be pulling them outside the expectations operator and treating them as constants?