Forecasting Accuracy -- MAD, MAPE, MSE
I have a couple of item demands, and I am trying to use THREE different forecasting methods on each of them. Then, I calculate MAPE, MAD, and MSE for each method -- a total of NINE measurements per item. The purpose of this is to choose the best performing technique for each item.
The problem is that there is high variability in the demand and the methods fail to do their job. I want to know how useable the methods actually are.
For example, I have a MAD of 16 on one of the forecasts, but the average demand for this item is 17. Am I looking at MAD in "correct" context (AVG demand)? If yes, this is horrible result, right?
Any additional information I can provide.
Re: Forecasting Accuracy -- MAD, MAPE, MSE
I am a Statistician / psychologist who can help you with your statistics and statistical design in spss, amos, statistica, Econometrics, minitab, stata, r, gpower (in psychometrics, psychology, sociology, marketing, statistics, or psychometrics) as well with the whole project (master, bachelor, dissertation). Regression, ttests, factorial analysis, correlation, time series, cluster analysis, cross tabulation, Discriminant Function Analysis, Hierarchical Linear Modeling, Significance Testing, path analysis, anova, ancova, glm, non-parametric (e.g. bootstrap), reliability, standardization, validity, mediation and moderation analyses can be done. Normality check as well plagiarism check is offered. We can also evaluate questionnaires. Private lessons are offered also using skype. Payment by paypal. email:email@example.com, facebook: elias estatistics.