Thread: Conditional probability

Hello, I'm stuck on a problem, I'd be very grateful if someone could help:

To go to work employs take their car or the bus. If they take their car they have 1/2 chances to be late, if they take the bus only 1/4 chances to be late. If they are on time one day they will take the same mean of transportation the next day, if they are late they switch. If p is the probability that an employ goes to work on day one with his car:

a) what is the probability that he'll go to work with his car on day n?

I started by writing the probability with the conditional probability that he went to work on day n-1... but that's the best i can come up with I don't know what else I can do.

b) what is the probability that he will be late on day n.

c)what is the limit when n---> inf for a) and b).

Thanks a lot in advance!!

Ok I might have found something.




then if is our function of probability:


so



am I right?