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Math Help - Probability that the Next Event will be successful GIVEN Past Data

  1. #1
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    Probability that the Next Event will be successful GIVEN Past Data

    This is not for homework. I am a marketing manager in need of help setting up and understanding the calculations and logic behind probabilities GIVEN I already know the past data.

    If you think of Google, you have those Ads in the search results when you search for something.

    Let's say a given keyword 'converted' (had one success) out of 100 clicks (trials). So that would be 1/100.

    What is the probability that the next click will convert (2/101) ?

    In other words, if an ad has had 100 clicks and 1 conversion, what is the probability that the next click (a total of 101) will convert resulting in a total of 2 conversions?

    I have no idea how to approach this problem but I would be in debt for any help so I can be self-sufficient with these types of problems.
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  2. #2
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    Re: Probability that the Next Event will be successful GIVEN Past Data

    Interesting question, probably a few approches you can use.

    Lets say it took 100 clicks to achieve success then you have a probability of 1/100, if that is the only information you have, assume the second success to come sonewhere in the next 100 clicks.

    If things went differently i.e. it took 100 clicks to achieve success then in the next 100 clicks you had 2 successes then the new 'expected' probability would be (1+2)/(100+100) you can continue using that pattern if you want.
    Thanks from jnscollier
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