This is not for homework. I am a marketing manager in need of help setting up and understanding the calculations and logic behind probabilities GIVEN I already know the past data.

If you think of Google, you have those Ads in the search results when you search for something.

Let's say a given keyword 'converted' (had one success) out of 100 clicks (trials). So that would be 1/100.

What is the probability that the next click will convert (2/101) ?

In other words, if an ad has had 100 clicks and 1 conversion, what is the probability that the next click (a total of 101) will convert resulting in a total of 2 conversions?

I have no idea how to approach this problem but I would be in debt for any help so I can be self-sufficient with these types of problems.