I was having fun figuring out the promotion and relegation of my daughter soccer league and ran in to this math question, that i don't even begin to know how to answer.

There a east and a west league. Each team has to play teams in thier league twice and the other league once. There is 16 games per team in the schedule.

Each league has 6 teams, 4 stay up and 2 go down. Points are 1 for a tie and three for a tie, 0 for a loss.

I want to know, what is the formula(and where the variable go) to figure out the number of points the 4th place team must get to stay up. I want the formaula, because the number will change as data changes over the weeks.

For my team, we have played 5 and won 3, tied 1 and lost 1.

I figure, it's a round 22, but want to understand the math. 48 points if we win all 16, we are at 11 know after 5 games.

Thanks for the help.