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Math Help - Probability Problem

  1. #1
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    Probability Problem

    Hey guys, I am having trouble figuring this problem out if you could shed any light on it then that would be greatly appreciated!

    Jodie is considering bidding for the rights to three government supply contracts,
    one in April, one in May, and one in June. She must bid for all three right simultaneously
    (she cannot choose to only bid for one or two of them), but even if she wins one, she is
    not guaranteed to win the others. Preparing the paperwork for a bid like this will cost
    $100,000 which must be paid whether she wins the contracts or not. Of course, if she
    decides not to bid after all, she pays nothing. To determine whether bidding is likely to
    She knows from past experience that, if she wins the April contract, the likelihood of winning
    the May contract is 72.00% , and, if she wins both the April and May contracts,
    the likelihood of winning the June contract is 82.00% . If, on the other hand, Jodie
    doesn't win the April contract, then there is a 62.00% chance that she will also lose the May
    contract. And, if she loses both the April and May contracts, the likelihood of losing the June
    contract will be 82.00% . The overall chance of winning the June contract is
    44.1280% . However, if she wins the April contract, the chance of winning the June contract
    contract would be 71.920% .
    Each contract will be worth $64,000.00 . If the chance that Jodie only wins One (1) of
    the contracts (i.e. either the April or the May or the June but neither of the others) is
    26.8800% thenů What is Jodie's expected value from bidding ?
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  2. #2
    MHF Contributor
    Joined
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    Re: Probability Problem

    try drawing a tree diagram and filling out asmuch ofit as possible from the information provided,then usethistofind the chance of winning each contract
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