Thread: Simple task for anyone with the faintest idea about probability

Hi!
Yeah, I need help. Easy question for most math experts, I'd guess, but I just hate probability. So here goes...

Joe and his two friends were shooting balloons at a carnival. They all made one shot and hit two balloons. Their respective probabilites for hitting the balloons were as follows: 0.2 for both of Joe's friends and 0.6 for Joe himself. Find the probability that Joe was the one who missed the shot.

Yup, I get that you're apparently supposed to use the Bayes' formula, but that knowledge doesn't really help me. So any outside help would be appreciated!

Originally Posted by JacobE

Joe and his two friends were shooting balloons at a carnival. They all made one shot and hit two balloons. Their respective probabilites for hitting the balloons were as follows: 0.2 for both of Joe's friends and 0.6 for Joe himself. Find the probability that Joe was the one who missed the shot.

Is it clear to you that the probability that exactly two hit a balloon is

Can you explain why that is? What do you do with that?

Originally Posted by Plato

Is it clear to you that the probability that exactly two hit a balloon is

Can you explain why that is? What do you do with that?

Yeah, that much I figured out. The probability that exactly two balloons are hit forms up of either Joe missing ( ) OR either of his two friends missing ( ).
But other than that, no, I don't know what to do with it.

Originally Posted by JacobE

Yeah, that much I figured out. The probability that exactly two balloons are hit forms up of either Joe missing ( ) OR either of his two friends missing ( ).
But other than that, no, I don't know what to do with it.

Let be the event that exactly two hit balloons.
You say that you see
Suppose that is the event that Joe misses the balloon.
Now you want

I think that I finally got the idea of it.
Unless I made a misscalculation, the correct answer should be .

If so, then thanks for the guidance!