Originally Posted by

**brentvos** Hi,

I am looking for a solution to the following problem, which according to the question can be solved using bayes' theorem:

The same event occurs a 1000 times

Every time, the chance of it being positive is 17%

Everytime 11 events in a row are negative, the 12th is positive with a 100% chance.

There are no external events apart from the aforementioned rules

What is the expected amount of positive events, and how did you reach this conclusion?

My approach was invalid because it was to simplified, yet the end result was close to the actual answer (which still hasn't been provided)

(1000-1000/12)*0.17+1000/12=239.17

That answer is incorrect.

Does anyone have a solution?

Edit: recieved a hint: the chance that the event will be negative 11 times in a row is 12.69%. This implies that that number has something to do with it, otherwise the tip would not have been given