Probability question above my pay grade.
I have a small problem that I can't solve without doing it long hand and if possible I'd like to have a formula to solve it. Or the answer would be nice too. (Rofl)
I have 6 people, 3 of which are bad guys and 3 are good guys. If I have to choose one out of the group as a bad guy then my odds are 50/50
Take the same 6 people with the same spread... but limit my choice to only one of 4 random people.
What are the odds of my 4 choices including all 3 bad guys
What are the odds of my 4 choices including only 2 bad guys
What are the odd of my 4 choices including only 1 bad guy.
Let me ask the question differently.
Given the same two options as above... choose one of the entire 6 ... or choose one of a random 4.. What is the best decision based on probability.
Re: Probability question above my pay grade.
If you had a really large population, this would be a nice binomial problem. As it is, you may just going to have to count them. I'd start with a tree diagram.
Of course, you could just calculate it.
Just one of 4:
You do 2 of 4.