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Math Help - Calculating probability when sampling without replacement.

  1. #1
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    Calculating probability when sampling without replacement.

    I have two questions which i need some help and tell me what is wrong with my attempted answers:
    A box contains 100 items, 2 of which are faulty. If 2 are selected at random without replacement calculate the probabilities that 0, 1 or 2 of the selected items are faulty.

    This my attempt for the first probaility:
    Pr(0 Faulty)= (99/100) * (98/100)

    An electronic components manufacturer submits tenders to three separate companies for a work over the next month. From past experience the contracts manager estimates that the probability that each tender will be accepted as in the table below.
    Company Probability
    A 0.8
    B 0.6
    C 0.9

    Calculate the probability that at least one tender is accepted:

    This is my attempt:
    I have assumed this is independent.
    Pr(at least one tender) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) + Pr(C) + Pr(A U B) + Pr(A U C) + Pr(B U C) + Pr(A U B U C)

    P.S
    Last edited by mr fantastic; August 20th 2011 at 04:54 PM. Reason: Re-titled.
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  2. #2
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    Re: Probability questions

    Quote Originally Posted by Paymemoney View Post
    A box contains 100 items, 2 of which are faulty. If 2 are selected at random without replacement calculate the probabilities that 0, 1 or 2 of the selected items are faulty.
    Let F be the number of faulty items in the sample.
    Then .

    To answer this question sum k=0,1,2.

    Did you get 1 as the answer?
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  3. #3
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    Re: Calculating probability when sampling without replacement.

    is that sum P(F = k) calculated as matrices?

    because i do not get 1 as the answer
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  4. #4
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    Re: Calculating probability when sampling without replacement.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paymemoney View Post
    I have two questions which i need some help and tell me what is wrong with my attempted answers:
    A box contains 100 items, 2 of which are faulty. If 2 are selected at random without replacement calculate the probabilities that 0, 1 or 2 of the selected items are faulty.

    This my attempt for the first probaility:
    Pr(0 Faulty)= (99/100) * (98/100)
    This can't be right. There are 100 items but 2 are faulty so there are 98, out of 100, that are not. The probabilty that the first your draw is not faulty is 98/100, not 99/100. Also, because this is sampling without replacement, you now have 97 non-faulty out of 99 total. The probability that the second is also not faulty is 97/99.

    To draw "one faulty" you can either draw first a good one and then a bad one or vice versa. The probability that the first you draw is not faulty is, again, 98/100. You now have two faulty ones out of 99 total so the probabilty that the second drawn is faulty is 2/99. Doing it the other way, the probabilty that the first you draw is faulty is 2/100 and then the probability that the second is not is 98/99. Of course, \frac{98}{100}\frac{2}{99}= \frac{2}{100}\frac{98}{99}
    so the order really doesn't matter. The probability of drawing one faulty item is 2\left(\frac{98}{100}\frac{2}{99}\right).

    The probability that the first you draw is faulty is \frac{2}{100} and then the probability that the second is also is \frac{1}{99}. The probability that both are faulty is \frac{2}{100}\frac{1}{99}.

    An electronic components manufacturer submits tenders to three separate companies for a work over the next month. From past experience the contracts manager estimates that the probability that each tender will be accepted as in the table below.
    Company Probability
    A 0.8
    B 0.6
    C 0.9

    Calculate the probability that at least one tender is accepted:

    This is my attempt:
    I have assumed this is independent.
    Pr(at least one tender) = Pr(A) + Pr(B) + Pr(C) + Pr(A U B) + Pr(A U C) + Pr(B U C) + Pr(A U B U C)

    P.S
    That doesn't look like a very good method- too complicated.

    "At least one" is the same as "NOT none". Calculate the probability that NO tender is accepted (and, of course the probabilities that offers to A, B, and C separately are NOT accepted are 1- .8= .2, 1- .6= .4, and 1- .9= .1, respectively) and subtract from 1. Assuming that these are independent, just multiply the probabilities.
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  5. #5
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    Re: Calculating probability when sampling without replacement.

    Quote Originally Posted by Paymemoney View Post
    is that sum P(F = k) calculated as matrices?

    because i do not get 1 as the answer
    Paymemoney,

    Your question makes me suspect that you are not familiar with the notation used by Plato.

    In this context,
    \binom{n}{m}
    is not a matrix; it is a binomial coefficient, or equivalently, the number of ways to choose m items out of a set of n objects. So
    \binom{n}{m} = \frac{n!}{m! (n-m)!}

    For example,
    \binom{100}{2} = \frac{100!}{2! 98!} = 4950

    Does that help?
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  6. #6
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    Re: Calculating probability when sampling without replacement.

    thanks for the replys, After i posted my question i worked out the notation that Plato was using
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