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Math Help - Bayesian prob question

  1. #1
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    Bayesian prob question

    Hi, I know this should be straight forward. An urn contains one White chip and a second chip that is equally likely to be White or black. A chip Is drawn at random and returned to the urn. Then a second chip is drawn. What is the prob that a White appears on the second given that a White appeared on the first draw?
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  2. #2
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    Re: Bayesian prob question

    Quote Originally Posted by Mathsdog View Post
    Hi, I know this should be straight forward. An urn contains one White chip and a second chip that is equally likely to be White or black. A chip Is drawn at random and returned to the urn. Then a second chip is drawn. What is the prob that a White appears on the second given that a White appeared on the first draw?
    Draw two tree diagrams: One where the urn has a W chip and a B chip, and one where the urn has two white chips.

    Then it's easy to see that the required probability is (1/2)(1/4) + (1/2)(1) = 5/8.
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