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Math Help - Conditional probabilty help.

  1. #1
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    Conditional probabilty help.

    it has been observed that 45% of the email sent to your account is spam and as a result you have set up a spam filter.however the filter fails to quarantine 2% of spam emails and inadvertently quarantines 5% of genuine emails.
    1)what is the probabilty that an email will be quarantined as spam?
    2)if an email is quarantined as spam what is the probabilty that it is actually a spam email?

    i tried this question and came up with 46.85% for part 1 and 94.13% for part 2 are these answers correct?
    Last edited by mr fantastic; July 17th 2011 at 12:24 AM. Reason: Title.
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  2. #2
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    Re: Conditional probabilty help.

    Quote Originally Posted by university View Post
    it has been observed that 45% of the email sent to your account is spam and as a result you have set up a spam filter.however the filter fails to quarantine 2% of spam emails and inadvertently quarantines 5% of genuine emails.
    1)what is the probabilty that an email will be quarantined as spam?
    2)if an email is quarantined as spam what is the probabilty that it is actually a spam email?

    i tried this question and came up with 46.85% for part 1 and 94.13% for part 2 are these answers correct?
    Please show your working - it makes it easier to check for obvious errors - should they be present - without having to spend time doing the calculation.
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  3. #3
    Grand Panjandrum
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    Re: Conditional probabilty help.

    Quote Originally Posted by university View Post
    it has been observed that 45% of the email sent to your account is spam and as a result you have set up a spam filter.however the filter fails to quarantine 2% of spam emails and inadvertently quarantines 5% of genuine emails.
    1)what is the probabilty that an email will be quarantined as spam?
    2)if an email is quarantined as spam what is the probabilty that it is actually a spam email?

    i tried this question and came up with 46.85% for part 1 and 94.13% for part 2 are these answers correct?
    You do realise that we could give a yes/no answer to this, and if it were no you would then have to ask a further question and if yes you could still get zero credit for this if the method you used was erroneous.

    CB
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