I have read the forum with interest for some time, but this is my first post and I hope that someone could possibly steer me in the right direction.
I work as a trader for an online bookmaker, with the majority of my work being focused on pricing up (setting the odds) for football (soccer) matches.
For the most part when it comes to pricing up these matches I essentially have a rough idea in my head of what the prices should be and then adjust those prices in accordance to what the rest of the industry is showing. However I feel that by doing this, I am not making the most of the information available to me and feel that it can be done in a far more clinical manner.
My question is simply - How would you calculate the true percentage chance of a home win, a draw and an away win?
What factors would you hold the greatest weight to and how would you utilise them?
For example, would you look at the league average for a home win, draw and away win and then combine that with each individual teams recent records, also taking into account goal scoring averages? If so how would you do this?
Would you use the respective goalscoring averages in conjunction with Poisson distribution and then take the percentage indicated by specified correct scores and build a percentage chance of a home win, draw and away win from that? (add up the % chance of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, 3-0, 3-1 and 3-2 for each side for their % win chance and then 0-0, 1-1, 2-2 and 3-3 for the % draw chance)
Would you look at goalscoring supremacy and adjust their goal averages in accordance to whether they were playing at home or away? (Team A average 1.76 goal overall, but 1.89 when at home)
Any help that you could give me would be very much appreciated.