# fantasy football,.. #1 draft pick odds if extra name in hat?

• Jan 2nd 2011, 02:48 PM
mrgrowpro
fantasy football,.. #1 draft pick odds if extra name in hat?
Hey all, not sure if anyone here is into fantasy football, but i had an idea for my league and I'm a little unsure of the math to do with it.

So as you might or might not know, week 17 football is a pretty meaningless and sad time for fantasy footballers, our playoffs are over, and the real playoffs haven't started yet. So i was thinking what could we do in week 17. And since so many in my league play year after year i thought why not make week 17 interesting and count for another name in the hat come next years draft day. So normally there are 12 names in a hat and we draw for draft order, but the winner of week 17 (highest total points scored, no team vs team play) would get an extra name in the hat next year, so a higher chance of getting the coveted #1 pick.

What I'm wondering though is, how much it actually increases that persons chances of getting the #1 pick, i mean it's still only 2 v 11 other names in the hat, when normally it's 1 v 11. How much do the odds go up with with each additional name added? Assuming all pieces of paper are the same size and all that. It's just a random drawing from a hat for draft order. (Nod)
• Jan 2nd 2011, 02:53 PM
dwsmith
13 total names: 12 plus the 1 extra.

% of getting 1st round 1/13 = 7.7%

% 2/13 = 15.4%
• Jan 2nd 2011, 03:01 PM
mrgrowpro
Thank you,..
so what is the % change of getting #1 overall pick if its just 12 total names in the hat?
• Jan 2nd 2011, 03:02 PM
dwsmith
Quote:

Originally Posted by mrgrowpro
Thank you,..
so what is the % change of getting #1 overall pick if its just 12 total names in the hat?

Isn't there going to be 13 no matter what since 1 person will have an extra name?
• Jan 2nd 2011, 03:08 PM
mrgrowpro
yes but im just wondering the odds as it is now, with only 12 names in the hat.

also wondering what it would be if we gave 3 names to week 17 winner, 14 total 3 with the same name on them
• Jan 2nd 2011, 03:09 PM
dwsmith
1/12 = 8.33%

3/14 = 21.42%