Originally Posted by

**neeeel** I have 2 probabilities

p1 is the probability that team A will **score** 0 goals

p2 is the probability that team B will **concede** 0 goals

how do i combine the 2 and calculate the probability of team A scoring 0 goals into team B?

should the probability of A **scoring** 0 goals into team B not be the same as the probability of team B **conceding** 0 goals from team A?

**Yes, the probability of A not scoring against B is the probability of B not conceding against A more or less.**

(B could conceiveably concede against themselves ... an "own goal")

However the probability of A not scoring "in a game" is based on their fixture history,

if they failed to score in 30 of 100 on average, the probability of not scoring is 0.3

and the probability of B not conceding is based on their past games also.

However, this does not mean that the probability of A not scoring against B is 0.3..

Statistically speaking, we'd need to examine the previous games between the clubs

and many other current factors.

Is it as simple as p1*p2? I thought i might need to use conditional probability to work out the intersection of p1 and p2, but it doesnt seem to look right when I do it

**Not in this case, since they are playing each other.**

If they were playing different teams, then the probability of A not scoring and B not conceding is the

product of the probabilities, not taking into account the details of the opponents.

For example, if B have always failed to keep a clean sheet,

and A score in half their games,

would the probability of a 0-0 score be close to 0.5 ?

thanks for any help

neil