Thread: odds for predicting temperatures

what would the odds of a person being able to select the high temperature for a location 7 days in a row, given that the range would be bounded by 7 choices each day. For example for the coming 7 days day one range would be 60 to 67, day 2 would be 65 to 72 etc.

Originally Posted by chewey338

what would the odds of a person being able to select the high temperature for a location 7 days in a row, given that the range would be bounded by 7 choices each day. For example for the coming 7 days day one range would be 60 to 67, day 2 would be 65 to 72 etc.

Assuming the selection was random, the probability is (1/7)^7. If the selection is not random, the question cannot be answered without detailed information.

Originally Posted by chewey338

what would the odds of a person being able to select the high temperature for a location 7 days in a row, given that the range would be bounded by 7 choices each day. For example for the coming 7 days day one range would be 60 to 67, day 2 would be 65 to 72 etc.

Since the high temp for a given location is highly correlated from day to day there is insufficient information to answer this. (Though the answer is likely to be close to one if you know the high temp on day -1, since a 3.5 degree change in high temp from one day to the next in most locations is pretty low)

CB