# Laplace approximation (plug'n'chug problem)

• August 26th 2010, 10:38 AM
courteous
Laplace approximation (plug'n'chug problem)
Quote:

Factory makes 1600 products each day.
Probability of a flawed product is 10%.
What is the probability of more than 175 flawed products?

The formula I'm given: $P(a\leq X\leq b)\approx\Phi(\frac{b-np}{\sigma})-\Phi(\frac{a-np}{\sigma})$.

Plugging in: $P(175

Which is not even close to a given solution: "Laplace's approximation for P(175 < X) = 0.10565". (Which is close to second $\Phi$.)

The correct solution is $\sum_{k=176}^{1600} {1600 \choose k} 0.1^k 0.9^{1600-k}=0.09944$, so I must be doing something wrong.(Headbang)

SOLVED: I was plugging in variance instead of standard deviation. (Blush)