Tree Harvesting -- Please Help!!!!!!!!!!

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• May 25th 2007, 09:12 PM
owenji81
Tree Harvesting -- Please Help!!!!!!!!!!
You are considering an investment in a tree farm. Trees grow each year by the following factor:
year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Growth 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.15 1.1 1.05 1.02 1.01

The price of lumber follows a binomial lattice with u = 1.2 and d = 0.9. The interest rate is constant at 10%. It costs \$2m each year, payable at the beginning of the year, to lease the forest land. The initial value of the tress is \$5m. You can cut the trees at the end of any year and then not pay rent after that.

(1) Argue that if the rent were zero, you would never cut the trees as long as they were growing.
(2) With rent of \$2m per year,find the best cutting policy and the value of the investment opportunity.
• May 25th 2007, 09:57 PM
CaptainBlack
Quote:

Originally Posted by owenji81
You are considering an investment in a tree farm. Trees grow each year by the following factor:
year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Growth 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.15 1.1 1.05 1.02 1.01

The price of lumber follows a binomial lattice with u = 1.2 and d = 0.9. The interest rate is constant at 10%. It costs \$2m each year, payable at the beginning of the year, to lease the forest land. The initial value of the tress is \$5m. You can cut the trees at the end of any year and then not pay rent after that.

(1) Argue that if the rent were zero, you would never cut the trees as long as they were growing.

Looks wrong. If this is a 50-50 binomial lattice the expected price of the
trees next year is 0.5*1.1 + 0.5*0.9 = 1.05 times their value now, or price
grows at 5%, but interest rates are 10% so the investment is losing value
at ~5% per annum if the trees don't grow.

RonL