Thread: calculate probability of student retention

Hi, I have a table containing grade levels K-5 with 5 different years as col/row headers and retention % as data fields. I want to track the K class through the 5 years and see what the probability is that a student went through all 5 years without being retained. We can assume that the class sizes remain constant for each year. Right now here are the datapoints I am looking at.....

Kinder 2001-02 4.7%
1st 2002-03 11.6%
2nd 2003-04 5.6%
3rd 2004-05 19.8%
4th 2005-06 11.9%

What are the chances a student went through all those years without being retained? I have tried a few things but am not confident with the resulting numbers...(~56%).

Thanks for any help you can provide!

Hello, jlamp!

The table contains: grade levels K-5 for five years, and retention %.

. .

What is the probability that a student went through the five years
without being retained?

If (big IF) I understand the probolem, we have:


. .





. . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . .

. . . . . . . .

That is what I got but wasnt sure on the method. Thanks for your help