# Thread: probability of finding an unknown lowest number

1. ## probability of finding an unknown lowest number

Hello,

It being the football world championship, and bear is flowing a-plenty, some friends and me started playing a weired little game that can probably best be solved with statistics. We'd generate a high number of random full numbers, read out one, and the others must chose if that's the lowest number in the pack.

Having been out of school for far too long and having forgotten about everything about probability calculations I wonder what is the best way of playing this game, and how would you calculate the chance of finding the lowest number.

Lets say there are 130 numbers for the sake of it. The range.. does it matter? The lowest really could be 1, but also 524203452.

Looking forward for your help

2. Why is it tricky? If you get one guess without any other information, 1/130.

3. Hehe, you're right. I meant, and did not mention that you get one random number and decide afterwards if you think it's the lowest or if you want the next number. Until the numbers are all used or you made your choice.

4. It sounds like your game may be equivalent to the "secretary problem". See

Secretary problem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia