Why is it tricky? If you get one guess without any other information, 1/130.
Hello,
It being the football world championship, and bear is flowing a-plenty, some friends and me started playing a weired little game that can probably best be solved with statistics. We'd generate a high number of random full numbers, read out one, and the others must chose if that's the lowest number in the pack.
Having been out of school for far too long and having forgotten about everything about probability calculations I wonder what is the best way of playing this game, and how would you calculate the chance of finding the lowest number.
Lets say there are 130 numbers for the sake of it. The range.. does it matter? The lowest really could be 1, but also 524203452.
Looking forward for your help
It sounds like your game may be equivalent to the "secretary problem". See
Secretary problem - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia