Hi guys!
I just read recently a very interesting pdf talking and actually explaining how it could be possible of beating the game of roulette with the use of standard deviation. Now I now many of you must be like: Here is another one that cannot accept the fact that the house always WINS!! I'm not saying that it can be done, all I want to do is discuss this with some intellectuals to see what they think haha. At first I was very skeptical, then I read it and thought a lot about it and then I got more and more interested so please bear with me.
Ok so the first thing that got me hooked was this simple fact:
Let's pretend that I toss 12 times a fair coin and all the outcomes happened to be heads. Then I call my friend that did not witness the previous 15 results and ask him what should come next. Obviously he should tell me that both outcomes have the same probability of falling. However, this is where it gets interesting, I know that if I was to conduct many and many routines of 13 coinflips there would be a 99.7% chance of hitting both outcomes at least once. How did I get this %? By using standard deviation.
Standard deviation is a very useful tool. It shows how much variation there is from the average. For example in this example the ''average/mean'' or the ''expected outcome'', if you prefer, would be 12 divided by 2 = 6.
The standard deviation (the third one) equals to 5.19615
This means that 99.7% of the time a tails and heads should fall at least 0.80 (6-5.19615) time every 12 coinflips.
Now can somebody tell me how could this help me in the game of roulette? Except for helping me determine if a wheel is fair or not...
I've determined an example for roulette about hitting dozens:
If I was to conduct many groups of 12 spins I would notice (supposing the wheel is fair) that 68% of the time every dozen should fall between 2 and 6 times on everyone of them. Additionally 95% of the time every dozen should fall between 1 and 7 times and finally 99.7% of the time every dozen should fall between 0 and 9 times.
How could this information possibly help me? Some might suggest betting from the beginning since we know that 95% of the time we win, others would say to wait for an event (waiting for a missing dozen for 11 spins and then flat bet until winning). I don't think either of these solutions would work. For starters there are no possible betting combination that would make it possible to be positive in the long run even with a 95% chance. Waiting is not the answer..I think. I have the impression that knowing the standard deviation could sincerely help the game but I also have some thoughts telling me it is impossible.
Tell me what you think geniuses!
Any comments would be appreciated!
PS: Feel free to check out the pdf or to look out for the name of the website. It is called John Solitude.
Thanks in advance
Rafael