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Math Help - Chance of success.

  1. #1
    Newbie Critter314's Avatar
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    Chance of success.

    In Left 4 Dead there is cool move when 4 hunters land on 4 different targets resulting in instant win.
    I did some statistic research against good teams to find out how much hunters fail.

    • There is 0.8 chance that hunter will get shot during the jump.
    • There is 0.6 chance that hunter will get stopped after the jump.
    • There is 0.6 chance that hunter will jump on wrong target(which makes whole attack fail).

    So to make successful attack all 4 hunters must not get shot during the jump, must not get stopped if didn't got shot during the jump, must jump on right target.

    How do I eliminate all failures and find out success probability?
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  2. #2
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    P(not shot and not stopped and not miss) = P(not shot) * P(not stopped) *P(not missed) = 0.8 *0.6*0.6 =.288

    I've assumed that the events are all independant
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  3. #3
    Newbie Critter314's Avatar
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    But when its 4 hunters it goes like this?
    (0.6*0.6*0.8)^4 = 0.00687970714
    So chance is 0.6%?
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  4. #4
    MHF Contributor
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    if the outcome for each hunter is independant, yes
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