# Chance of success.

• Jun 25th 2010, 10:38 AM
Critter314
Chance of success.
In Left 4 Dead there is cool move when 4 hunters land on 4 different targets resulting in instant win.
I did some statistic research against good teams to find out how much hunters fail.

• There is 0.8 chance that hunter will get shot during the jump.
• There is 0.6 chance that hunter will get stopped after the jump.
• There is 0.6 chance that hunter will jump on wrong target(which makes whole attack fail).

So to make successful attack all 4 hunters must not get shot during the jump, must not get stopped if didn't got shot during the jump, must jump on right target.

How do I eliminate all failures and find out success probability?
• Jun 25th 2010, 11:50 AM
SpringFan25
P(not shot and not stopped and not miss) = P(not shot) * P(not stopped) *P(not missed) = 0.8 *0.6*0.6 =.288

I've assumed that the events are all independant
• Jun 25th 2010, 01:01 PM
Critter314
But when its 4 hunters it goes like this?
\$\displaystyle (0.6*0.6*0.8)^4 = 0.00687970714\$
So chance is 0.6%?
• Jun 25th 2010, 01:12 PM
SpringFan25
if the outcome for each hunter is independant, yes