Chance of success.
In Left 4 Dead there is cool move when 4 hunters land on 4 different targets resulting in instant win.
I did some statistic research against good teams to find out how much hunters fail.
- There is 0.8 chance that hunter will get shot during the jump.
- There is 0.6 chance that hunter will get stopped after the jump.
- There is 0.6 chance that hunter will jump on wrong target(which makes whole attack fail).
So to make successful attack all 4 hunters must not get shot during the jump, must not get stopped if didn't got shot during the jump, must jump on right target.
How do I eliminate all failures and find out success probability?
P(not shot and not stopped and not miss) = P(not shot) * P(not stopped) *P(not missed) = 0.8 *0.6*0.6 =.288
I've assumed that the events are all independant
But when its 4 hunters it goes like this?
So chance is 0.6%?
if the outcome for each hunter is independant, yes