I can't seem to come up with the correct answer. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks!
Problem: You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water, the plant will die with a probability of 90%. With water, it will die with a probability of 30%. You are 95% certain the neighbor will remember to water the plant. You come back from vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probability the neighbor forgot to water it?