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Math Help - Probability Word Problem

  1. #1
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    Unhappy Probability Word Problem

    I can't seem to come up with the correct answer. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks!


    Problem: You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water, the plant will die with a probability of 90%. With water, it will die with a probability of 30%. You are 95% certain the neighbor will remember to water the plant. You come back from vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probability the neighbor forgot to water it?
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    Quote Originally Posted by eri123 View Post
    I can't seem to come up with the correct answer. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks!


    Problem: You ask a neighbor to water a sickly plant while you are on vacation. Without water, the plant will die with a probability of 90%. With water, it will die with a probability of 30%. You are 95% certain the neighbor will remember to water the plant. You come back from vacation and the plant is dead. What is the probability the neighbor forgot to water it?
    Draw a tree (hah! hah!) diagram and use Bayes Theorem:

    \frac{(0.05)(0.9)}{(0.05)(0.9) + (0.95)(0.3)} = ....
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