Probability is a rather elusive subject. Off the bat you have operational failures so this looks good. the probability of this EXACT result is around Think of it this way, we could have operational error, etc.. and the sum of ALL these possibilities is So when you are saying what is the probability of EXACTLY operational errors. A probability of is definitely one of the highest possible outcomes.

The key is to understand that there is possible outcomes. If each of the outcomes were eqaully likely, with probability Then the sum of all possibilities would be around and not So the outliers like operational error out of will have a very small probibility, and the out come with the highest probability would be operational errors. Why is this?

Do you get what I'm saying?