You can't predict the next outcome, since drawings are independent. All you can do is give probabilities (and these you know already).Originally Posted by ernest
I have a problem unable to solve. I am not an expert in maths, if possible, PLEASE provide an explanation. Any comment(s) greatly appreciated.
there are 4 possible outcomes 1 to 4, results are independent to each other and drawn randomly (suppose to)
BUT the EXPECTED percentages (from computer) are as follows:
1 = 20%
2 = 22%
3 = 33%
4 = 25%
The ACTUAL percentages (in last 500 draws) are: (which is very close to expected)
1 = 21%
2 = 22%
3 = 32%
4 = 25%
The Actual percentages (in last 50 draws) are:
1 = 26%
2 = 22%
3 = 22%
4 = 30%
The ACTUAL percentages (in last 10 drawss) are:
1 = 20%
2 = 10%
3 = 30%
4 = 40%
and the history for the last 10 drawings are as follows (left=most recent):
3, 4, 4, 4, 2, 3, 4, 3, 1, 1
and i want to predict which number will be picked next
OR able to find the probability of next picking a 1 , 2, 3 and 4.
I believe that Poisson distribution is relevant because it can predict probability of a certain outcome which relies upon knowing historical data. i.e. in excel "=((POWER(historal average,wanted outcome))*POWER(2.718,-history average))/FACT(wanted outcome)"
BUT it does not take into consideration on counting specifically - the order of the last 10 or so results to calculate (which i believe is most important).
Please also note that the law of large numbers/averages would NOT help here, because I am predicting the NEXT result and not the results in the long run.
Perhaps somehow combing with break-even analysis, maximum same number draws or something else.. i am not sure
Break-Even Analysis: =(log2/((log a)-(log(a-1)))) where the probability of the outcome is 1/a
Maximum Same Number Draws: i.e. in excel "=ROUND(((LN(no of throws))/(-LN(1-probability of occuring))),0)"
Any comments?
Thanks