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Math Help - Predicting the Next Drawing Number (1 to 4)

  1. #1
    ernest
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    Predicting the Next Drawing Number (1 to 4)

    I have a problem unable to solve. I am not an expert in maths, if possible, PLEASE provide an explanation. Any comment(s) greatly appreciated.

    there are 4 possible outcomes 1 to 4, results are independent to each other and drawn randomly (suppose to)

    BUT the EXPECTED percentages (from computer) are as follows:

    1 = 20%
    2 = 22%
    3 = 33%
    4 = 25%

    The ACTUAL percentages (in last 500 draws) are: (which is very close to expected)

    1 = 21%
    2 = 22%
    3 = 32%
    4 = 25%

    The Actual percentages (in last 50 draws) are:

    1 = 26%
    2 = 22%
    3 = 22%
    4 = 30%

    The ACTUAL percentages (in last 10 drawss) are:

    1 = 20%
    2 = 10%
    3 = 30%
    4 = 40%

    and the history for the last 10 drawings are as follows (left=most recent):

    3, 4, 4, 4, 2, 3, 4, 3, 1, 1

    and i want to predict which number will be picked next
    OR able to find the probability of next picking a 1 , 2, 3 and 4.

    I believe that Poisson distribution is relevant because it can predict probability of a certain outcome which relies upon knowing historical data. i.e. in excel "=((POWER(historal average,wanted outcome))*POWER(2.718,-history average))/FACT(wanted outcome)"

    BUT it does not take into consideration on counting specifically - the order of the last 10 or so results to calculate (which i believe is most important).

    Please also note that the law of large numbers/averages would NOT help here, because I am predicting the NEXT result and not the results in the long run.

    Perhaps somehow combing with break-even analysis, maximum same number draws or something else.. i am not sure

    Break-Even Analysis: =(log2/((log a)-(log(a-1)))) where the probability of the outcome is 1/a

    Maximum Same Number Draws: i.e. in excel "=ROUND(((LN(no of throws))/(-LN(1-probability of occuring))),0)"

    Any comments?

    Thanks
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  2. #2
    hpe
    hpe is offline
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    Apr 2005
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    Quote Originally Posted by ernest
    I have a problem unable to solve. I am not an expert in maths, if possible, PLEASE provide an explanation. Any comment(s) greatly appreciated.

    there are 4 possible outcomes 1 to 4, results are independent to each other and drawn randomly (suppose to)
    You can't predict the next outcome, since drawings are independent. All you can do is give probabilities (and these you know already).
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