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Math Help - statistical formula

  1. #1
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    statistical formula

    Hi, I am looking to build a statistic for a poker database and just after a little bit of help to construct it as I know it will be useful for what I am trying to achieve but unsure of how best to express it.

    Problem: Put simply, there are 4 seats. A(acts first), B, C, D(acts last). And the seats move round in a clockwise direction for every hand of the game. It is alway an advantage to sit in a seat greater then your opponent, ie B has an advantage over A but C has the advantage over B, etc. Obviously different players have different styles. Some players play an exact amount of hands regardless of what seat there are in, 15%. Other players may play the same amount of hands but the distribution of their 15% of hands is weighted more towards Seats C & D to capitalize on the advantage they have in these seats.

    I am just wondering what would be the best method to express what we would like to know, ie is the player playing the same % of hands in each seat? Or weighting their hands towards seat C & D.

    plays = voluntarily plays hand
    opp = Opportunities to play

    (( D plays / D opp) + ( C plays / C opp) - ( C plays / C opp) - ( A plays / A opp)) * 100 / ( D Total plays / D Total opp))

    Is there a better way to indicate this?

    Factors for consideration: I have simplified the game of poker several fold here. Most players who play in seat A will play with a stronger holding, gradually increasing their holdings. The volume of hands needed to play to make this 100% accurate will never be achieved.

    Thanks to anyone that takes some time to look at this.
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  2. #2
    Grand Panjandrum
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    Quote Originally Posted by LovePokerHateMath View Post
    Hi, I am looking to build a statistic for a poker database and just after a little bit of help to construct it as I know it will be useful for what I am trying to achieve but unsure of how best to express it.

    Problem: Put simply, there are 4 seats. A(acts first), B, C, D(acts last). And the seats move round in a clockwise direction for every hand of the game. It is alway an advantage to sit in a seat greater then your opponent, ie B has an advantage over A but C has the advantage over B, etc. Obviously different players have different styles. Some players play an exact amount of hands regardless of what seat there are in, 15%. Other players may play the same amount of hands but the distribution of their 15% of hands is weighted more towards Seats C & D to capitalize on the advantage they have in these seats.

    I am just wondering what would be the best method to express what we would like to know, ie is the player playing the same % of hands in each seat? Or weighting their hands towards seat C & D.

    plays = voluntarily plays hand
    opp = Opportunities to play

    (( D plays / D opp) + ( C plays / C opp) - ( C plays / C opp) - ( A plays / A opp)) * 100 / ( D Total plays / D Total opp))

    Is there a better way to indicate this?

    Factors for consideration: I have simplified the game of poker several fold here. Most players who play in seat A will play with a stronger holding, gradually increasing their holdings. The volume of hands needed to play to make this 100% accurate will never be achieved.

    Thanks to anyone that takes some time to look at this.
    I presume you mean:

    \frac{ D_{plays} / D_{opp} +  C_{plays} / C_{opp} -  B_{plays} / B_{opp} -  A_{plays} / A_{opp}}  {Total_{plays} / Total_{opp}}\times 100

    I would prefer:

    \frac{ (D_{plays}  +  C_{plays}) / ( D_{opp}+C_{opp}) -  (B_{plays}  +  A_{plays}) /( B_{opp}+ A_{opp})}  {Total_{plays} / Total_{opp}}\times 100

    and I'm not sure that I like that either.



    CB
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  3. #3
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    Thanks CaptainBlack. I am more of an Excel Formula then a Math Formula guy which is why I suck at this sort of math, I should rly go back to school tbh to express this stuff properly! The way I've written it is the way its calculated in stat, so apologies if it didn't make sense first time round but thanks for interpreting it and writing out the correct formula.

    Generally, plucking some numbers out of the air players could be playing 15:17:27:41 of their total hands, respectively in each seat.

    In terms of the functionality of the statistic can you explain to me why you have changed it the way you have? Would that more realistic deduct what I am trying to establish with better precision? (And why don't you like it?)

    Thanks
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  4. #4
    Grand Panjandrum
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    Quote Originally Posted by LovePokerHateMath View Post
    Thanks CaptainBlack. I am more of an Excel Formula then a Math Formula guy which is why I suck at this sort of math, I should rly go back to school tbh to express this stuff properly! The way I've written it is the way its calculated in stat, so apologies if it didn't make sense first time round but thanks for interpreting it and writing out the correct formula.

    Generally, plucking some numbers out of the air players could be playing 15:17:27:41 of their total hands, respectively in each seat.

    In terms of the functionality of the statistic can you explain to me why you have changed it the way you have? Would that more realistic deduct what I am trying to establish with better precision? (And why don't you like it?)

    Thanks
    I have changed it because you are interested in the comparison of behaviour in seats A and B with seats C and D, so I have grouped the data in when the player is in A or B and when they are in C or D.

    CB
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  5. #5
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    Thanks. Ive been thinking about this recently. The actual expression within my database is;

    ((cnt_vpip_bu / cnt_hands_bu) + (cnt_vpip_co / cnt_hands_co) - (cnt_vpip_hj / cnt_hands_hj) - (cnt_vpip_mp / cnt_hands_mp)) * 100 / (cnt_vpip / cnt_hands )

    Where vpip = "Number of times player voluntarily put money in the pot from the..." AND hands = "Number of hands the player was dealt from the..."

    I didn't write this code, (downloaded it!).

    If I used combinations of a hand range per each seat could this increase the accuracy? ie 1326*hand played% per each seat....?
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