Here's my situation:
My buddy is sending me formula(e)-derived "power rating" selections in NBA basketball which are wagered at 11/10 but could also be wagered at 21/20 offshore.
I figure the "fair coin" test would be what is applicable...but you guys are the experts.
ALL GAMES CONSIDERED
So far, the Against The Spread, bet on "SIDES" is 84 wins -120 losses - 1 tie(41.18%)
So far, the Against The Spread,BET ON "total points scored" IS 90 wins - 108 losses - 4 ties(45..45%).
WHEN I PARSE THE LINE ON THAT SAME SET OF GAMES FOR A 6-POINT DIFFERENCE FROM THE SPREAD:
The subset produces these figures:
SIDES: 38 wins - 47 losses - 1 tie(44.71%)
TOTALS: 44 wins - 57 losses - 2 ties(43.56%)
Do we have an "unfair coin" here that I could be wagering against(colloquially referred to as "fading" ) those pointspread betting events during the second half of the NBA season.
Have enough betting events been generated or could these figures be due to chance?
He's also sent me hockey picks which are producing a 3.11 % return but the volatility has been incredible...these NBA picks have been steadily poor(almost no volatility) and getting poorer as the season progresses.