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Math Help - Eat my Kicker (Poker)

  1. #1
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    Eat my Kicker (Poker)

    Was playing a tournament tonight where I was all in twice versus same opponent where we had the same broadway card but he outkickered me by 1 on each occasion. On Both occasions I lost. My hand equity was better then 2-1 in both situations so I wasn't a complete underdog.

    But what is the probability of this happening with 3 players over a sample size;

    • 20 hands
    • 75 hands
    • 150 hands

    Game is Texas Holdem.

    K3o V K4s. My equity = 44.289% (source pokerstove)
    A2o V A3o. My equity = 46.950% (source pokerstove)

    Appreciate any time spent on this. Thanks. Pls let me know if any of this doesnt make sense.
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  2. #2
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    I have no idea what a kicker is, or "hand equity" or K3o (and the rest of those). Perhaps explaining in layman's terms would help you get this question answered.
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  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by ANDS! View Post
    I have no idea what a kicker is, or "hand equity" or K3o (and the rest of those). Perhaps explaining in layman's terms would help you get this question answered.
    Thank you for pointing that out. You can ignore hand equity.

    A = Ace
    K = King
    Q = Queen
    J = Jack
    T/10 = erm 10.
    9~2 = numbers.

    In Texas Holdem the table has 5 cards. Each player has 2 cards.

    Kicker = next card after strongest card that may or may not play. IE I have Ace7, my Opponent has AceQueen. The board is KJ832. My opponent has out kickered me because he has the best hand (Him = AQKJ8, Me = AKJ87). My kicker plays because its higher then a 3 & 2 but does not win.

    However if the board was say KKKK2 (Both KKKKA) It wld be a split as his Q would not play as he can only use best 5/7 cards as can I. On KKKJ2 his Q kicker plays and I loose (Him KKKAQ, me KKKJA).

    Each Player makes the best combination out of their 7 cards.

    If I have an Ace high with a 2 kicker, virtually any ever Ace is beating me. ie 3 through to K (apart from the the other A2 combinations)

    I hope this makes the original post clearer.
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  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by LovePokerHateMath View Post
    Was playing a tournament tonight where I was all in twice versus same opponent where we had the same broadway card but he outkickered me by 1 on each occasion. On Both occasions I lost. My hand equity was better then 2-1 in both situations so I wasn't a complete underdog.

    But what is the probability of this happening with 3 players over a sample size;

    • 20 hands
    • 75 hands
    • 150 hands

    Game is Texas Holdem.

    K3o V K4s. My equity = 44.289% (source pokerstove)
    A2o V A3o. My equity = 46.950% (source pokerstove)

    Appreciate any time spent on this. Thanks. Pls let me know if any of this doesnt make sense.
    I'm not exactly clear on what happened. Did you get all in pre flop, or on some other street? I'm also not sure, exactly, what you are asking. The probability of getting all-in preflop, dominated, and losing each time? That depends on how often your opponent is calling you with Ace-rag or King-rag if you are pushing with terrible aces and kings, which in turn depends on how deep you are, how bad he is, if you are on the bubble, etc.

    Posting an HH would probably be best, and clearly phrasing exactly what you are asking.
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  5. #5
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    K3o 3 handed. A2o Headsup.

    All in pre flop twice with K3 then later with A2. (Shortstacked)

    Its not a poker forum so no point posting hand histories + game was live.

    Was just asking what the probability is of being dealt a King V King, with an opponent being dealt a bigger King. With K3 & A2 chances are probably much higher but still wondering what chance of this is?
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  6. #6
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    You know, I typed out a long mathematical response to this, but after thinking about it I think you would be best served by downloading Stox-Combo. It can answer these questions, and many more complicated ones. Obviously it can't do things related to sample sizes, but you can do those calculations yourself using the binomial distribution. If, as you say, you hate math but love poker, I'm guessing you aren't particularly interested in the mathematics behind it so much as being able to answer these questions efficiently.You could also answer these questions, albeit in a roundabout way, using StoxEV. Both programs are worth having if you are interested in upping your game at any rate. I know you can answer these questions in the trial version of StoxEV no problem, so it's also free up-to that level of complexity.
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