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Math Help - urgent need help on conditional probability.

  1. #1
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    urgent need help on conditional probability.

    Question:

    In acertain region of the country if is known from past experience that the probability of selecting an adult over 40 years old age with cancer 0.05 . If the probability of adoctor diagnosing aperson with cancer having the diases is 0.78 and the probability of incorrectly diagnosing aperson without cancer as having the dieses is 0.06:

    1-what is the probability that aperson diagnised having acancer

    2-what is the probability as having acancer actually has adieses.

    thanks alot
    Last edited by mr fantastic; November 16th 2009 at 06:42 PM. Reason: Re-wrote it in lower case (NB: the grammar is NOT mine), removed excessive !'s in post title
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  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by john12345 View Post
    Question:

    In acertain region of the country if is known from past experience that the probability of selecting an adult over 40 years old age with cancer 0.05 . If the probability of adoctor diagnosing aperson with cancer having the diases is 0.78 and the probability of incorrectly diagnosing aperson without cancer as having the dieses is 0.06:

    1-what is the probability that aperson diagnised having acancer

    2-what is the probability as having acancer actually has adieses.

    thanks alot
    Draw a tree diagram. The first two branches are C and C' (where C = has cancer). Then:

    1. (0.05)(0.78) + (0.95)(0.06)

    2. \frac{(0.05)(0.78)}{(0.05)(0.78) + (0.95)(0.06)}
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