Originally Posted by
axa121 Hi there could anyone help me out with the following question please:
A plane crash could be caused by 1 or 4 of the following events.
H1 = faulty motor P(H1) = 0.2
H2 = bomb in the plane P(H2) = 0.4
H3 = missile that hit the plane P(H3) = 0.3
H4 = fault in the computer system P(H4) = 0.1
The investigation has shown that the crash was accompanied by the event A = fuel ignition. It is known that:
P(A l H1 ) = 0.7;
P(A l H2 ) = 0.9
P(A l H3 ) = 0.8
P(A l H4 ) = 0
Calculate P(H2 l A )
So i tried using the Bayes theorem but i got a probability of over 1. Could anyone help me out please.