Originally Posted by

**axa121** Hi there could anyone help me out with the following question please:

A plane crash could be caused by 1 or 4 of the following events.

H1 = faulty motor P(H1) = 0.2

H2 = bomb in the plane P(H2) = 0.4

H3 = missile that hit the plane P(H3) = 0.3

H4 = fault in the computer system P(H4) = 0.1

The investigation has shown that the crash was accompanied by the event A = fuel ignition. It is known that:

P(A l H1 ) = 0.7;

P(A l H2 ) = 0.9

P(A l H3 ) = 0.8

P(A l H4 ) = 0

Calculate P(H2 l A )

So i tried using the Bayes theorem but i got a probability of over 1. Could anyone help me out please.