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Math Help - Stats

  1. #1
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    Stats

    Ms. Bayes has a dog named Dorrie. If Ms. Bayes feeds Dorrie before going
    to bed, Dorrie wakes Ms. Bayes before 5 a.m. only 10% of the the time. If Ms.
    Bayes forgets to feed Dorrie before going to be bed, Dorrie wakes Ms. Bayes
    before 5 a.m. 80% of the time. Ms. Bayes forgets to feed Dorrie one day in twenty.
    If you hear Ms. Bayes complaining that Dorrie woke her before 5 a.m., what is
    the probability that she forgot to feed Dorrie the previous evening?

    Thanks for the help!
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  2. #2
    Grand Panjandrum
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    Quote Originally Posted by ballin_sensation View Post
    Ms. Bayes has a dog named Dorrie. If Ms. Bayes feeds Dorrie before going
    to bed, Dorrie wakes Ms. Bayes before 5 a.m. only 10% of the the time. If Ms.
    Bayes forgets to feed Dorrie before going to be bed, Dorrie wakes Ms. Bayes
    before 5 a.m. 80% of the time. Ms. Bayes forgets to feed Dorrie one day in twenty.
    If you hear Ms. Bayes complaining that Dorrie woke her before 5 a.m., what is
    the probability that she forgot to feed Dorrie the previous evening?

    Thanks for the help!
    Bayes' theorem:

    P(forgot | wakes)=P(wakes | forgot)P(forgot)/P(wakes)

    where P(wakes)=P(wakes | forgot)P(forgot)+P(wakes | remembered)P(remembered)

    CB
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