Ok lets say you and your friend are playing a computer game where you are sending intelligence officers to get the opponents' information on number of soldiers, tank, airplanes etc.
If you send more intelligence officers than the opponent has then you get to see his info. BUT there is a 5% chance that you will fail even if you send more than he has.
Lets say you send out your intelligence officers out 12 times and succeed only 4 times (8 times fail). And you are sending double of what he has (<- probably irrelevant).
So what are the chances that you fail 8 times out of 12?
is it 0.05^8
which is 0.256 * 10^-11