I have been posed a question. I'm an engineer and my logical mind has come up with an answer. However, I'm aware that it is possible to calculate the answer, and that it may not match what my logical brain came up with! I just don't know how to do it!! I hope you can help me?
2 scenarios, which is more likely to succeed?
Pick an number from 1 to 6. Roll a die. The chance of being correct is 1/6. this much I know!
First scenario. You have 4 throws, you can keep the same number or change it for each throw. What are the chances of your number coming up? Does it increase with the number of throws you have?
Logical brain says that the fact that your number didn't come up in the first 3 throws has no effect on the probability that it will come up in the 4th throw. Is this relevant?
Second scenario. You only have one throw, but can pick 4 numbers. this gives you a 2/3 chance of success, 4 times the probability if you only chose 1 number, right?
Thanks in advance for your help, i'm going mad trying to figure it out!