infectious disease spread
You are chief health inspector on a small Island whos population is 50,000. The infextious disease X has been spreading for some time and your task is to predict its future course. Disease X is not fatal provided the patient's fever is kept down, and full recovery with immunity results in 14 days after infection. Once recovered, the person is no longer infectious, According to your statistics, 2100 people are currently infected and 2500 have recovered. The rate of new infections for disease C can be calculated as 10^(-5)*S*I, where S represents the number of people in the susceptible population and I represents the number of infected persons.
Your task is to make some short range and long term predictions. How will disease X spread over the next few dats? What is your prediction for the next month? What is the maximum numbe rof people who will be sick at once?
where do I start?