Holy moly the flop was 4s, 3s, 2d and Moon had 5s, 6s... Flush on and had a straight. WTF?!? Odds to win = pretty immense... Apparently it was part of his strategy though...
At the final table of this year's World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event final table the following hand took place.
Steven Begleiter: 24.9 million chips
Darvin Moon: > 24.9 million chips
Pre-flop almost 8 million chips get into the pot and two players remain. On the flop Moon checks and Begleiter bets 5 million. Moon raises to 15 million and Begleiter goes all in for 21 million total. Moon folds!
(3.9 million * 2 players preflop) + 5 million initial flop bet + 15 million raise + (21 million total left- 5 initial bet= 16 million) = 43.8 million. The pot was actually a little larger because of antes but the next point still remains.
Moon had to call 6 million to win 43.8 million total, giving him better than 7 to 1 odds! on the total pot, over 8:1 on the total pot with the call in. You don't have to know anything about poker to know that you cannot make the 15 million chip raise the Moon did if you can't call 6 million more on top of it. This fold is considered one of the worst folds in poker tournament history both in terms of strategy and pot odds ever.
Some how though, Moon has made it down to the final two players and has a possibility of winning the entire tournament. Shows the luck in poker.
I personally hope he wins. When an everyday guy wins something like this, it makes a lot of people think they can do it too. Then they go online and dump all their money to the good players.
not that Moon could have possibly put him dead on the hand, or calculate his odds of winning, but after the flop he was actually only 7% to win... not sure what he was to tie, but if you were superman and could see the other guy's cards, his odds of winning actually were not good enough to call, as he would've needed an 11% chance of winning the hand
You will never hear it but gut feelings are a big part of poker. He may have been willing to go all in at the time of his bluff raise and simply had a change in gut feeling. If you watch the pros thruout a tournament you will see them shy away from the math and go with the gut. I dont think you could be among the best if you dont have a good gut. Doyle Brunson speaks of a flat out psychic abilty in one of his books. Obviosuly you cannot quantify this but the best of the best have proven that there is a mechanism outside of the math to win in these things. In short you dont play every hand in math alone. He may have just gotten a hunch that he was about to lose at the point that the all in got shoved.
Now I doubt anyone at the table can do the required calculations (they are not what you might think anyway) and I'm not sure that they have even been done in a model but that is just an academic quibble.
What you describe a gut feelings is evolutions solution to the decision under uncertainty problem for when there are too many factors to make an objective decision. It is not generally optimal but can be effective in the situations it evolved to handle.
There are situations where the mathematics become so simple that anything other than a single play is an absolute blunder. For extreme cases of this, see Sit-and-Go (which you can find Nash Equilibrium charts for, though there is still some room for maneuvering if you think your opponent isn't thinking as deeply as you are) or Satellite endgame strategy (where it can potentially be correct to fold AA preflop in Holdem).
Well you left a very unclear picture of what you meant so maybe you should learn to write?
"It is not generally optimal but can be effective in the situations it evolved to handle."
Are you talking about picking tomatos at the super market or the final table of WSOP? The reader may never know.