First off, nice signature . It works quite well on the mozilla start pageSo, if a 1 is on top you win, chance of this happening:1/10

If a 2 is on top, then you will only win if the second card is a 1, chance of this happening:1/10*1/9=1/90

If anything else is on top, you will only win if 1 is either the second or third card, chance of this happening is:

(chance of second card being 1) + (chance of third card being one)

= (8/10 * 1/9) + (8/10 * 7/9 * 1/8)

= 8/90 + 7/90

= 15/90

Add all those together to get:

9/90+1/90+15/90=25/90=5/14

But make sure to CHECK MY ARITHMETIC!!!!!!!!!!!